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Those who braved the housing market in 2024 faced one of the slowest sales years in three decades. Next year is shaping up to be a little bit better.
Many of the plights that kept would-be buyers and sellers sidelined this year, like 6% to 7% mortgage rates and home prices near record highs, aren’t going anywhere. But housing experts expect there to be more homes on the market next year as buyers and sellers come to terms with today’s higher-rate world.
The housing market has been effectively stuck since mortgage rates began their swift climb in 2022. Homeowners lucky enough to lock in rates around 3% in earlier years were suddenly reluctant to move if it meant taking on a new mortgage at a rate that had more than doubled.
But that “lock-in effect” may finally begin easing in earnest next year as the life events that always spur people to move — births, deaths, marriages, divorces, and job changes — continue as mortgage rates drift lower and improved inventory sparks more price competition.
Real Estate Agent Robert J Russell, who works in the entire state of Texas, and global website, said business was sluggish for much of the year, but he’s expecting to see more inventory hit his market this spring. He thinks buyers might find better deals as the year progresses, and sellers who have been on the sidelines adjust their prices to meet the current market.
“It’s going to be one more year of pain, but by the end of the year, some of these people that said they’re going to be locked in forever that want to leave…they’ll move,” he said.
Complicating the recovery is the fact that home ownership remains unaffordable for much of the country.
Median home prices are about 30% higher today than pre-pandemic, outpacing income gains made in the same period. Higher mortgage rates, rising insurance costs, and elevated property taxes add additional challenges for prospective buyers. The ongoing affordability problems mean any uptick in transactions is still likely to be well below historical averages.
“We think it’s going to continue to be a slow climb out,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com, which expects existing home sales to rise 1.5% next year to 4.07 million. That figure would be significantly below the average of 5.28 million homes sold annually between 2013 and 2019.
Surveys suggest that consumers would need mortgage rates to reach 5.5% before they step off the sidelines en masse. Few housing experts expect rates to get that low next year, especially amid uncertainty around President-elect Donald Trump’s economic policies. But mortgage rates in the 6% to 6.2% range this year were enough to spur an increase in buying and selling, and those levels remain possible next year. Read more: Why are home prices so high?
Zillow sees a choppy path for mortgage rates in 2025, starting with a fall, then a rise, then another fall. Such volatility is typical most years, and next year has added unknowns stemming from the presidential transition and the Federal Reserve’s ongoing rate-cutting cycle, said Orphe Divounguy, senior economist at the real estate marketplace. Zillow economists ultimately expect rates to end 2025 below current levels of around 6.7%, but note “there’s no guarantee.”
Realtor.com sees potential for rates to average 6.3% next year. Brokerage Redfin, on the other hand, also expects fluctuations next year but thinks the average could remain around 6.8%, close to current levels.
Los Angeles-based real estate agent Walter Franco Jr. said even slightly lower rates next year probably won’t be enough to unleash a flurry of activity in his pricey market. Buyers seeking homes in the $1.5 million to $2 million range aren’t very sensitive to rate changes, but those looking for cheaper options are, he said. “At that more entry-level price point, rates are really crushing them,” Franco said. Read more: When will mortgage rates go down? A look at 2024 and 2025. Nationally, many economists call for home prices to rise between 2% and 4% next year, around historical averages. But the strength of the housing market is likely to vary heavily by location. The most expensive markets along the coasts look poised for bigger price gains due to a lack of new building and an abundance of wealthier buyers who have benefitted from stock market gains in recent years. On the flip side, cities in Florida and some of the Southeast and Midwest may not see such steep gains. Florida’s condo market continues to be in crisis as owners struggle to shoulder heavy repair bills stemming from 2021’s Surfside condo collapse. And home prices are expected to be flat or fall in some less-prosperous locales as lower earners struggle to afford homes.
“We are set up in such a way that those who are advantaged are going to continue to be advantaged in this housing market, and those who have less access are going to continue to have less,” said Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS. Sturtevant expects home price appreciation to be strongest in already high-cost metro areas like Boston, New York, and Washington, D.C. Cities that saw the most aggressive price increases during the pandemic followed by falling prices in the last year — such as Tampa, Fla., and San Antonio, Texas — may see smaller gains or even price declines.
Meanwhile, unknowns around the Trump administration’s economic policies threaten a fragile recovery. Some policies he’s proposed, like tax cuts and tariffs, would likely worsen inflation and require interest rates on products, including mortgages, to stay elevated for longer. But homebuilders are excited by his commitment to deregulation, which could make it easier for them to build, and help lower prices by adding housing supply.
Waldorf, Md.-based real estate agent Jon Benya, who works with many government workers, contractors, and members of the military, said Trump’s talk of slashing the size of the federal government, or relocating certain agencies away from Washington, may be enough to chill activity in southern Maryland.
“Perception is reality, and when you have job insecurity because you’re concerned that your job may be cut, finding a new home is the last thing on your list,” Benya said.
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Home contract activity jumps for third straight month as consumers shrug off higher rates Home contract signings rose in October for the third consecutive month as homebuyers took advantage of growing inventory levels and shook off higher mortgage rates.
The Pending Home Sales index, which measures signed real estate contracts for existing single-family homes, condos, and co-ops, rose 2% to 77.4 from a month earlier. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001.
Activity rose in all parts of the country, led by the Northeast, which saw a 4.7% month-over-month gain. Contract signings in the Midwest rose 4%, while gains in the South and West were smaller. “Homebuying momentum is building after nearly two years of suppressed home sales,” Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, said in a statement. “Even with mortgage rates modestly rising … continuous job additions and more housing inventory are bringing more consumers to the market.”
Compared to a year earlier, contract activity rose 5.4% nationwide. There are other signs that the housing market is revving up headed into year-end. Mortgage applications to purchase a home jumped 12% through Friday compared to a week earlier, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
The uptick in contract activity for existing homes stands in contrast to new homes sales, which dropped last month, according to data released on Tuesday.
Some of that sales decline is likely explained by Hurricane Helene, which caused devastating flooding along Florida’s west coast and in western North Carolina, eastern Tennessee, and southwest Virginia in late September, and Hurricane Milton, which made landfall in west central Florida less than two weeks later.
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WASHINGTON (May 21, 2021) – Existing-home sales waned in April, marking three straight months of declines, according to the National Association of Realtors®. All but one of the four major U.S. regions witnessed month-over-month drops in home sales, but each registered double-digit year-over-year gains for April.
Total existing-home sales,1https://www.nar.realtor/existing-home-sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, slipped 2.7% from March to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 5.85 million in April. Sales overall jumped year-over-year, up 33.9% from a year ago (4.37 million in April 2020).
“Home sales were down again in April from the prior month, as housing supply continues to fall short of demand,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “We’ll see more inventory come to the market later this year as further COVID-19 vaccinations are administered and potential home sellers become more comfortable listing and showing their homes. The falling number of homeowners in mortgage forbearance will also bring about more inventory.
“Despite the decline, housing demand is still strong compared to one year ago, evidenced by home sales from this January to April, which are up 20% compared to 2020,” Yun continued. “The additional supply projected for the market should cool down the torrid pace of price appreciation later in the year.”
The median existing-home price2 for all housing types in April was $341,600, up 19.1% from April 2020 ($286,800), as every region recorded price increases. This is a record high and marks 110 straight months of year-over-year gains.
Total housing inventory3 at the end of April amounted to 1.16 million units, up 10.5% from March’s inventory and down 20.5% from one year ago (1.46 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 2.4-month supply at the current sales pace, slightly up from March’s 2.1-month supply and down from the 4.0-month supply recorded in April 2020. These numbers continue to represent near-record lows. NAR first began tracking the single-family home supply in 1982.
Properties typically remained on the market for 17 days in April, down from 18 days in March and from 27 days in April 2020. Eighty-eight percent of the homes sold in April 2021 were on the market for less than a month.
First-time buyers were responsible for 31% of sales in April, down from 32% in March and 36% in April 2020. NAR’s 2020 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers – released in late 20204 – revealed that the annual share of first-time buyers was 31%.
“First-time buyers in particular are having trouble securing that first home for a multitude of reasons, including not enough affordable properties, competition with cash buyers and properties leaving the market at such a rapid pace,” Yun said.
Individual investors or second-home buyers, who account for many cash sales, purchased 17% of homes in April, up from 15% in March and 10% in April 2020. All-cash sales accounted for 25% of transactions in April, up from both 23% in March and 15% in April 2020.
Distressed sales5 – foreclosures and short sales – represented less than 1% of sales in April, equal to March’s percentage but down from 3% in April 2020.
According to Freddie Mac, the average commitment rate(link is external) for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage was 3.06% in April, down from 3.08% in March. The average commitment rate across all of 2020 was 3.11%. Yun expects the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage to remain below 3.5% in 2021.
Single-family and Condo/Co-op Sales
Single-family home sales dropped to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 5.13 million in April, down 3.2% from 5.30 million in March, and up 28.9% from one year ago. The median existing single-family home price was $347,400 in April, up 20.3% from April 2020.
Existing condominium and co-op sales were recorded at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 720,000 units in April, up 1.4% from March and up 84.6% from one year ago. The median existing condo price was $300,400 in April, an increase of 12.6% from a year ago.
“The demand for homeownership in America is as strong as it’s ever been, and NAR continues working with policymakers across the country to find solutions to the issues we face in our industry,” said NAR President Charlie Oppler, a Realtor® from Franklin Lakes, N.J., and the CEO of Prominent Properties Sotheby’s International Realty. “Ultimately, though, buyers still recognize that securing a home is one of the best ways to build long-term wealth, and Realtors® continue their work to make that dream a reality for families everywhere.”
Realtor.com®’s Market Hotness Index(link is external), measuring time-on-the-market data and unique viewers per property, revealed that the hottest metro areas as of May 13 were Manchester, N.H.; Concord, N.H.; Lafayette, Ind.; Janesville, Wis.; and Elkhart, Ind.
Regional Breakdown
Only the Midwest experienced higher sales from the prior month, but each of the four major U.S. regions recorded year-over-year increases.
Existing-home sales in the Northeast fell 3.9% from March, but the annual rate of 730,000 represents a 30.4% leap from a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $381,100, up 22.0% from April 2020.
Existing-home sales in the Midwest grew 0.8% to an annual rate of 1,290,000 in April, a 13.2% increase from a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $259,300, a 13.5% rise from April 2020.
Existing-home sales in the South decreased 3.7%, recording an annual rate of 2,600,000 in April, up 39.0% from the same time one year ago. The median price in the South was $289,600, a 15.8% jump from one year ago.
Existing-home sales in the West declined 3.1% from the month prior, posting an annual rate of 1,230,000 in April, a 53.8% surge from a year ago. The median price in the West was $501,200, up 19.9% from April 2020.
The National Association of Realtors® is America’s largest trade association, representing more than 1.4 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
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Technology shares led U.S. stocks lower as surging commodity prices stoked concern about whether inflation will derail a growth rebound in the world’s largest economy and spoil a record stock rally.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index tumbled 2.6% amid the growing anxiety over inflation, which can threaten longer-horizon revenues typical of the sector. Tesla and Apple were among the biggest decliners. The ARK Innovation ETF resumed its slide.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average briefly topped 35,000 for the first time. The benchmark S&P 500 fell from an all-time high. Treasury yields edged higher as traders brace for a busy week of auctions.“Amid these new highs remember that the market doesn’t move only in one direction,” said Chris Larkin, managing director of trading and investing product at E*Trade Financial.
“While a full economic recovery may already be priced into the market, the weak employment data could have temporarily eased worries about too-hot inflation and the necessity of interest rate hikes to combat it.”
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Artificial intelligence, commonly referred to as AI, represents both a risk and a benefit to the security of society, according to Bruce Schneier, security technologist, researcher, and lecturer at Harvard Kennedy School.
Schneier made his remarks about the risks of AI in an afternoon keynote session at the 2021 RSA Conference on May 17. Hacking for Schneier isn’t an action that is evil by definition; rather, it’s about subverting a system or a set of rules in a way that is unanticipated or unwanted by a system’s designers.
“All systems of rules can be hacked,” Schneier said. “Even the best-thought-out sets of rules will be incomplete or inconsistent, you’ll have ambiguities and things that designers haven’t thought of, and as long as there are people who want to subvert the goals in a system, there will be hacks.”
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Insurance experts say that there has been a downward shift in home insurance
premiums due to a steep drop in reported crime since the start of the coronavirus lockdown.
In the last three months, the average buildings and contents policy has fallen by 0.3%.
However, average premiums are up 3% when looked at over a 12-month period. Overall, premiums have increased just 1.9% in the six-and-a-half years since Consumer Intelligence first started collecting data in February 2014. Despite premiums edging up to their highest recorded point in June – before falling back again in July – prices have remained broadly stable for the last three years.
Homeowners in the north and the east coast continue to pay the most for their insurance policies. They are the only two regions across the US to attract premiums that are higher than the national average.
This recent reduction to home insurance premiums has not been felt by both our age groups. Premiums for the under-50s have remained flat in the last three months. It’s only the over-50s who have benefited, with their annual policies now 0.9% cheaper than three months ago.
Older properties, those built between 1925-1940, saw premiums rise 4.4% in the last 12 months, the most of any segment. This was closely followed by houses erected this millennium (4%).
Robert J Russell – Broker Owner of InsurancePricedRight.com, concludes:
“It’s perhaps no coincidence that this period takes us through the recent lockdown where the vast majority of people were spending much more time at home. Crime rates and home claims have both declined in recent months, which is the most likely reason for this small deflation in premiums.”
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Life insurance can provide much-needed cash for loved ones you leave behind when you die. That financial safety net for those who depend on you for support is the primary reason to buy a policy.
But life insurance also can provide cash for you while you’re living—that is, if you have a cash value life insurance policy. This is one of the perks of a permanent policy and a key reason it costs more than a term life insurance policy (along with lasting your entire life).
You can access the cash in a variety of ways. That’s right: It’s yours for the taking. Before you do this, though, understand your options and the pros and cons of each.
What Is Cash Value?
When you buy a cash value life insurance policy, the premium you pay doesn’t just go toward the death benefit—the amount that’s paid to your beneficiaries when you die. It also goes toward a cash value account and internal policy costs.
The cash value in a life insurance policy grows at either a fixed or variable rate, depending on the type of policy you have. A whole life insurance policy will have a fixed interest rate and usually pays dividends that will help the cash value grow. Universal life insurance often has variable rates, so cash value growth will depend on investment performance.
The cash value grows tax-deferred. You can even take cash out of a policy tax-free if you use the right strategy to access the cash.
Withdrawing the Cash You Need
Because the cash in a permanent life insurance policy is yours, you can withdraw it when you want. Simply call your insurance company to let it know how much you want to withdraw, and it will wire the cash to you or deposit it into your bank account, says Josh Hargrove, a Certified Financial Planner with Insight Wealth Partners in Plano, Texas.
Withdrawals are taken first from your “basis”—the amount you’ve paid into cash value through premiums. That money comes out tax-free because it’s considered a return of your basis. For example, if you have $50,000 in cash value and $30,000 of that is your basis, you could withdraw $30,000 tax-free. If you tap the earnings portion, though, you’ll have to pay taxes on the gains at your regular income tax rate, Hargrove says.
Withdrawing cash for a life insurance policy also will reduce the death benefit. That means your beneficiaries will get less when you die—which is something to consider before withdrawing cash from a policy.
Cash Withdrawal Pros and Cons
Pros: No interest is paid on a withdrawal.
Cons: A withdrawal reduces your policy cash value and death benefit. It may be taxable if the withdrawal exceeds the amount of premiums paid.
Borrowing the Cash You Need
Rather than withdraw cash from your policy, you can borrow it.
A life insurance policy loan can be a fast and easy way to get cash for a purchase such as a car, for retirement income or to help cover costs temporarily if you lose a job.
“Loans are the most common way policy owners access cash in a policy as they are completely tax-free,” says Chris Abrams, founder of Abrams Insurance Solutions in San Diego (as long you’re not borrowing from a modified endowment contract).
Plus, you don’t have to pay back the amount you borrow. But if you don’t pay it back, the amount will be deducted from the death benefit that is paid to beneficiaries.
Like any loan, though, there’s a charge to borrow. So the amount owed will grow over time due to interest charges.
The benefit of a participating loan is that you can continue to earn interest on the outstanding loan amount. For example, if the interest rate on the loan is, say, 5% and the return on your cash value is 7%, you’d still earn 2% on the amount you’ve borrowed, Abrams says. On the flip side, if the rate of return dropped to 0% in a down market, you’d have to pay the full 5% interest rate on the loan.
When borrowing from your cash value, you have to be careful not to borrow too much. If the amount of the loan plus interest owed reaches the total cash value of the policy, the policy can lapse.
Policy Loan Pros and Cons
Pros: No loan application or credit check. You can repay the loan on your own schedule, and the money goes back into your policy instead of to a lender. You may earn a positive arbitrage on the money you borrow.
Cons: The interest rate may be higher than other options. The loan will be subtracted from the death benefit if you don’t pay it back.
Surrendering the Policy for Cash
You can surrender your policy entirely to get the full cash value, minus any surrender charge. And you’ll have to pay taxes on any gains earned on the cash value portion of the policy. Plus, you’ll be giving up your life insurance coverage because surrendering a policy terminates it.
“Surrendering a policy is always the absolute last resort,” Abrams says. If you’re considering ditching your policy because you’re having trouble paying the premiums, you do have other options if you can’t pay your life insurance bill.
For example, you could reduce the policy’s face value to lower your premium, or use the cash value to convert the policy to paid-up status to keep some amount of coverage in place. You also can tap the cash value in your policy to pay your life insurance premiums temporarily if you’ve fallen on hard times. If you do this, be cautious not to deplete so much cash value that your policy lapses.
Policy Surrender Pros and Cons
Pros: If the policy has a surrender or cash value above the surrender charge, that is money in your pocket.
Cons: Possible surrender charges might wipe out any cash value. You might have to pay taxes. Your heirs will not receive a death benefit.
Sell Your Policy for Cash
You can get more than the cash value of your policy by selling it to a third party through a process called a life settlement. The third party will pay you a lump sum that’s less than the death benefit on the policy—but more than the cash value. The buyer will then pay the policy premiums. When you die, the investor collects the death benefit.
You could consider a life settlement if you have an immediate need for cash that trumps the need for life insurance.
You must be a certain age—typically 65—or have a certain level of health impairments in order to qualify for a life settlement. You’ll have better chances of selling your policy the older you are, says Lucas Siegel, CEO of Harbor Life Settlements.
You can be younger than age 65 to sell a life insurance policy through a life settlement, but you generally must be very ill. “Life settlements are calculated by understanding your life expectancy, and most third-party buyers prefer to purchase policies with a life expectancy of 10 years or less,” he says.
Being highly qualified by age and health condition also will help you get a bigger payment. Work with reputable life settlement companies, and get offers from more than one company.
Be aware that there can be fees associated with life settlements, and you’ll pay income taxes on the amount you receive from the sale of the policy.
Life Settlement Pros and Cons
Pros: You’ll get more cash than you would by surrendering your policy.
Cons: There are restrictions to qualify for a life settlement. The cash offer will be much less than the death benefit of the policy.
Look at Other Options
Before you choose any of these options for tapping the cash in your life insurance, speak with your insurance agent or financial advisor. Discuss how your policy will be impacted by each option. Also, consider whether there are better alternatives for coming up with the cash you need rather than using your cash value. If you bought the policy to provide a financial safety net for your loved ones after your death, you don’t want to jeopardize that by raiding your policy for cash.
Compare Life Insurance Companies Compare Policies With 8 Leading Insurers
Despite reporting a significant drop in claims and providing auto insurance customers with premium refunds, Progressive generated a substantial profit during the pandemic – a detail that consumer advocates believe is unfair to customers.
In a filing with the Michigan Department of Insurance, Progressive reported that it saw a 28.7% drop in accident claims in March this year, compared to March 2019. The company also said that claims were down 31.9% in March compared to February.
Notably, Progressive did not share its data for the month of April – the month when most auto insurers saw their biggest drop in accident claims.
Progressive’s actuary indicated that the company could provide a 22.8% refund, after expenses, to provide recompense to customers during the COVID-19 pandemic. But the insurer instead chose to refund 20% for April and May, saying the amount was its “best estimate of all associated effects.”
The insurer also revealed in a release that it saw $1.3 billion net income for April and May this year. The amount is more than double the $566.3 million net income the company posted for April and May last year.
Consumer Federation of America insurance expert Douglas Heller criticized Progressive’s profits, calling them “beyond extraordinary.”
Heller previously called for auto insurers to provide more premium relief to customers, after determining that the insurers’ giveback programs were “relatively meager” compared to the change in risk.
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